Seward, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS63 KOAX 031729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- A cold front Wednesday morning will bring in 30-40 mph gusts
  area-wide, cooling temperatures, and the possibility of
  flurries or sprinkles in northeast Nebraska (10% chance).

- Well below average temperatures are expected for Thursday with
  highs in the 20s. Wind chills Thursday morning are expected to
  be -7 to 5 degrees north of Interstate 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery reflects the northwesterly flow pattern over the
central CONUS, left behind by a broad, high-amplitude trough over
the eastern CONUS. To the west, the mid/upper patter features a slow-
moving Rex Blocking pattern, with a weakly organized vorticity
maximum off the California Coast underneath a high-amplitude ridge.
The surface pattern this morning continues to be dominated by high
pressure, with warm winds starting to come off the Rocky Mountain
front range. Those winds and the associated building low-level
thermal ridge will be the kick in the pants our high temperatures
have been needing to get us back above freezing -- a number that we
haven`t been above in the Omaha Metro area since Thursday last week.
We`ll be spoiled by highs in the upper 30s to low 40s alongside
south-southwesterly winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday will feature the more exciting weather for the forecast
period, with a morning cold front diving southward and opening the
gates for strong winds to sweep into the area. Temperatures will
hold their old for the early afternoon hours (generally in the 40s),
but should cool quickly during the evening and overnight hours as
stout high pressure slips in once again. In regards to the stronger
winds, expect them to be out of the northwest at 20-25 mph, gusting
to 30-40 mph heading into the evening and providing an extra bite to
the air that will keep us feel too much of the warmth of day time.
Another thing to watch during the afternoon hours are steeper lapse
rates in the lowest 3000 ft AGL, with cold enough temperatures
during the afternoon and evening hours, we could see some flurries
or light snow in northeast Nebraska into South Dakota.

Thursday and Beyond:

We`ll find ourselves thrust back into the freezer Thursday morning,
as we square up with some of the coldest wind chills we`ve faced so
far this season. Minimum wind chill values Thursday get as cold as
-7 to 5 degrees, largely north of I-80. During the daytime we`ll
climb as high as 25-30 degrees with less wind (thankfully).

Friday going into the weekend, we`ll see the blocking pattern to the
west begin to break down and deamplify the ridge as a cutoff low
progresses across northern Mexico. Nonetheless, we`ll enjoy
increasing highs and a mild weekend as those warmer temperatures
continue eastward -- because even a deamplifying ridge will provide
more warmth than we`ve had. Moisture-wise, we`ll continue to be
sequestered from any better moisture, with no clear clipper systems
coming out from the northwest. We could still have some very weak
system, but as of right now it doesn`t look likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Southwesterly winds of around 15 knots, gusting 25-30 knots will
continue at all TAF sites through 00Z. As winds weaken, there
will be low-level wind shear concerns at TAF sites tonight into
tomorrow morning. An important note is that the direction of the
wind shear will change during the overnight hours. Flow in the
1,000-2,000ft layer will start out west/southwesterly between
03Z and 06Z, and veer to become northwesterly by 12Z. This
change in direction will be most pronounced at KLNK where two FM
groups were used to divide up the LLWS. Lastly, at the end of
this TAF forecast period, low stratus is expected to move into
KOFK (after 15Z). Most guidance keeps ceilings VFR, but there is
the potential (30-40 percent) for MVFR ceilings. These clouds
should stay north of KLNK and KOMA through this current TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Darrah